Agricultural Economics Society

News

Latest Newsletter: July 2010

Letter from the President
"From Sea to Shining Sea"

These words from America the Beautiful take on an ironic meaning as a massive oil spill spreads over the Gulf of Mexico, following the April explosion on BP's Deepwater Horizon drilling rig. Unfortunately, the glint of sunlight off the ocean is not a thing of beauty but a reflection of oil-based environmental damage. Support for offshore oil exploitation has begun to evaporate as attention shifts to alternative energy sources.

The development of bio-energy has had major implications for agriculture in the United States. Ethanol derived primarily from corn (maize) is now a major part of the supply of transportation fuel. Usage mandates and subsidies (tax credits) have stimulated production, while domestic ethanol producers are protected by high import tariffs. These policy measures might seem to be logical if the aim is to reduce dependence on imported petroleum. But does the current policy mix really make economic sense?

Because of the composition of the current vehicle fleet in the US it is difficult to market fuel containing more than 10% ethanol, because older vehicles can suffer engine damage. Since Americans use less fuel these days the supply of ethanol is outstripping demand, thus hitting a ‘blend wall' and the US has begun to export ethanol. High sugar prices mean that the price of Brazilian ethanol (the world's other major producer) is relatively high and exports are profitable without subsidies. But what happens if sugar prices fall?

Mandated production of renewable fuel is set to expand. With weak domestic demand blenders will be forced to export regardless of price. Blenders collect a subsidy and exports are implicitly subsidised - a problem if world ethanol prices fall. Subsidised US exports of blended fuel would then compete with unsubsidised Brazilian ethanol. The situation is even more complicated since the US will probably have to import Brazilian ethanol to satisfy the mandated composition of renewable fuel supply. It is difficult to accept that this combination of excess supply of US ethanol, excess supply of blended fuel, subsidised exports, and imports of Brazilian ethanol despite the high tariff, would reflect an economically rational approach to energy policy. There may be a role for biofuels in our energy future - but we certainly need a more ‘joined-up' energy policy.

David Blandford, AES President 2010-11 (dblandford@psu.edu)

Journal of Agricultural Economics and EuroChoices

JAE's Impact Factor has slipped a little since last year, to 1.15 from 1.27, putting us 74th in the Economics list, compared with 54th last year. However, we remain in a strong second place in the Agricultural Economics and Policy group.  The 5-year impact factor for the JAE increased from 1.27 last year to 1.49 this year. Meanwhile, our submission rate continues its upward trajectory. We have already received 125 submissions since January, and are on track to exceed last year's submissions. (david.harvey@ncl.ac.uk) 

EuroChoices continues to make very good progress, with 15,000 articles downloaded in 2009, an increase of over 70 per cent on the previous year. The geographic spread of downloading institutions continues to grow with significant usage in China for the first time. The EU Commission remained the largest user in the policy community.  59 articles were submitted in 2009 from 13 countries. Visit the EuroChoices link on the AES website www.aes.ac.uk for guidelines for submitting articles. (John.Davis@qub.ac.uk)

Dates for your Diary

AES Conference, 18-20 April 2011 will be in Warwick University, where it will also be held in 2012.  Details will be posted on the AES website in due course. The mid-term meeting of the AES Executive will take place on Friday, 5 November in London, where the plans for the Conference will be on the agenda.

AESI Conference in Dublin, 14 October 2010. The Agricultural Economics Society of Ireland welcomes participation from AES members at the conference, which will cover a broad range of topics and will take place at the Ashtown Food Research Centre in Dublin. The Young Researcher Seminar will follow on 15 October. Further details can be found on the AESI website: www.aesi.ie  

SFER Conference at AgroCampus Ouest, Rennes, 9-10 December 2010. This conference will cover a wide range of topics, including the CAP post-2013. The conference will be in French but there is the possibility of organising a joint session with the AES through a video link. www.sfer.asso.fr

AES-Defra One-day Conference in London, 16 December 2010. The conference will be held at Church House, Westminster, and follows the successful one-day meeting in December 2009 on climate change. The topic has yet to be chosen, but will cover an issue of policy relevance. More details will be posted nearer the time on the AES website. Contact: Stuart.Platt@defra.gsi.gov.uk  

European Association of Agricultural Economics Events.  www.eaae.org 

2-4 September 2010. The Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Chania is organising a seminar in Crete on the External Costs of Farming: economic evaluation, risk considerations, environmental repercussions and regulatory framework.
15-17 September 2010. The Technische Universität München, Germany is organizing (with AAEA) a seminar on The Economics of Food, Food Choice and Health
27-30 October 2010. The Department of Economics, University of Parma, Italy is organizing a seminar on Spatial Dynamics in Agro-food Systems: Implications for Sustainability and Consumer Welfare
25-27 November 2010. The University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany is organizing a seminar on Climate change, food security and resilience of food and agricultural systems in developing countries: Mitigation and adaptation options

24-26 February 2011. A seminar on Assessing the Medium- to Long-term Impacts of Global Financial Crises on Agro-Food Sector and Rural Economies, in Antalya, Turkey

30 August-3 September 2011. 13th EAAE Congress, Zurich, Switzerland with the theme Change and uncertainty - challenges for agriculture, food and natural resources.

News of People

Congratulations

Sophia Davidova, President-Elect of the Agricultural Economics Society, was recently appointed Professor of European Agricultural Policy in the School of Economics at the University of Kent.

A Life in Agricultural Economics

Geoffrey Haydock, who died at the age of 84 in January 2010, was a member of the AES in the early part of his career, which spanned the Commonwealth Economic Committee, the International Tea Committee, the Livestock Records Bureau, Milk Marketing Board (MMB), National Economic Development Office, and the OECD in Paris. His career is of interest as it illustrates the contribution of an economist to the development of agriculture and agricultural policy in the second half of the 20th century.

Geoffrey reached the end of his school days in 1943 in the middle of World War II and served in the Royal Navy from 1943 to 1947 when he went up to Brasenose College, Oxford to read Politics, Philosophy and Economics.  In 1947 he also became an Oxford Half Blue in Athletics in his College and University cross country teams.

After initial employment with the Commonwealth Economic Committee and the International Tea Committee he settled in 1954 for six years in Edinburgh working for the Livestock Records Bureau.  Newly set up by the Department of agriculture in Scotland at the instigation of the Scottish NFU, the Bureau was responsible for the development of progeny records of dairy bulls in Scotland.  Use of the method of ‘contemporary comparisons' to assess the daughters of bulls in artificial insemination services was in its infancy as a scientific development, and Geoffrey threw himself into the organisation of this work with enthusiasm.  There has been enormous momentum in the breeding work started in the mid 1950's giving rise to the non-excludable benefits of the advancement of knowledge.  There can be little doubt that this has been a major factor in the near doubling of cow milk yields in the second half of the 20th century.  It has involved teams of people internationally and has grown into a worldwide trade.  Geoffrey had the good fortune to be involved in Scotland at the beginning.

In 1960 Geoffrey joined the Milk Marketing Board in Thames Ditton as a senior marketing economist.  He became an important part of the team developing and improving the marketing of milk in England and Wales for the manufacture of dairy products.  Control of this aspect of marketing had been restored to the Board in 1954 and the Board was concerned to improve its marketing arrangements in this sector to handle the increasing supply of milk which in the UK met with stiff competition from imports and dumping (of butter and skimmed milk powder) by competitors.  The work not only involved negotiations with the dairy trade but also representations to UK government departments and overseas importing organisations.

Experience of marketing milk in dairy product markets, prior to UK entry to the EEC in 1973, stood Geoffrey in good stead when he moved in 1965 to the newly set up National Economic Development Office under the leadership of the then deputy prime minister George Brown.  In the production of the NEDO National Plan report in 1965 which was a plan for growth, Geoffrey was responsible for the section of it on agriculture - the collection of evidence from parties in the industry and drafting the chapter on agriculture in the report for the Council's approval.  The most significant development was the Selective Expansion Programme which skilfully set a path of expansion within the narrow limits of the UK's then obligations to importers.  This was a policy which with various adaptations in the period from 1965 to the end of transition to EEC in 1978, was followed by UK governments.

After his work at NEDO, Geoffrey made the final move of his career to OECD in Paris in 1969, where he became a Principal Administrator in the Agricultural Markets Division of the Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries.  Geoffrey spent 17½ years at OECD, the longest period of his career, a job in which he served with distinction. Geoffrey specialised in the area of livestock markets and government policies, especially dairying.  He was particularly skilled in the drafting of periodic reports to the member governments of OECD on the various factors impacting on market outlook, in particular on the effects of government policy action on markets.  International trade in dairy products in the 1970's and 1980's depended (and still does) on the policies of trading blocks and member states, such as import quota controls of the United States,  US PL480 disposals,  and support policy and export restitutions of the then EEC.

Since the first world food crisis in 1974, OECD deepened significantly its market analysis activities, with new emphasis on the medium-term, on policy analysis, interrelations among commodities and on linkages with non-OECD countries. Geoffrey played a key role in these new developments. He contributed to bringing together the expertise of the key national agencies involved in market outlook work (for instance US, Australia, Canada, FAO), demonstrating great personal skills.  This OECD work had a very high political visibility, and was often referred to in Ministerial meetings: Geoffrey's drafting skills and political understanding were particularly useful in the hard process of negotiating Ministerial Communiqués. Food, agriculture and trade were very sensitive issues within OECD during the whole period spent by Geoffrey at OECD (and still are!). His analytical capacity, his openness to new approaches and his cooperative attitude were very much appreciated by his colleagues in the OECD, as well as by delegates from Member countries and scientific experts.

Geoffrey retired in 1986 but from his early days at Oxford as a cross country runner he was a team player.  As an agricultural economist he played his part throughout his career in the teams that have developed agriculture and agricultural policy behind the scenes in the long haul of development in the second half of the 20th century.

He was above all a devoted husband of 54 years and a father.  He leaves a widow, Audrey, and two daughters, Ann and Sally.

This appreciation of Geoffrey Haydock's career was written by Roland Williams (former Chief Economist of the MMB and President of the AES), with input from Geoffrey's widow, Audrey, and Gérard Viatte, former Director of Agriculture in the OECD.

Prize Essay Competition

The Society encourages the submission of essays - which carries a £1,000 prize awarded at the annual conference - by 30 November 2010. More information can be found at http://www.aes.ac.uk/index.php?do=essaycomp

Events in and around the OECD

In 25-26 February 2010 Ministers of Agriculture of OECD countries and a number of major non-OECD countries met in Paris on the theme of Food and Agriculture Policies for a Sustainable Future: Responding to Global Challenges and Opportunities. It is well worth reading the Communiqué, Summary from the Co-Chairs (Austrian and New Zealand Agriculture Ministers), and Background Notes on recent OECD work to gain a flavour of the emerging issues for policy makers, which could well have implications for research agendas: www.oecd.org/agriculture/ministerial

Following on from the Ministerial meeting, the Global Club of Directors of Agricultural Economics Research Institutes (which includes Directors of ERS in the US, Agriculture and AgriFood Canada, LEI in The Netherlands, PRIMAFF in Japan, KREI in Korea, and ABARE in Australia) will be meeting in Paris in early December to discuss the possible areas for research in their respective institutes. This will also be an occasion for the EuroChoices Steering Group to meet with the Global Club, as well as a possible meeting with the OECD Committee for Agriculture, to showcase EuroChoices to policy advisors. (wilfrid.legg@oecd.org)

An extended version of the printed Newsletter, which is circulated with the JAE, is available electronically on the AES website (www.aes.ac.uk). The deadline for receipt of material for the next issue is 1 December 2010, to the AES Secretary please wilfrid.legg@oecd.org  

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