THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS SOCIETY
Newsletter
April 2025

Letter from the President
Targets, Tariffs and Taxes
 
The world has changed. Global temperatures are 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The Paris Net Zero 2050 Agreement deadline grows closer. The US is launching tariffs that will dampen global economic growth. Carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) within the EU, UK and other nations aim to reduce carbon leakage. Agricultural inputs, agricultural commodities and food products are at the forefront of all these issues. Agricultural economists have a key role in providing independent data, evidence and analysis to help navigate this increasingly complex world.

The benefits of free trade are well known – specialisation, comparative advantage and political stability. With the world changing to a more protectionist stance, agricultural economists will be called upon to assess the impacts, adjustments and consequences of this new world order. While the data and analytical approaches needed to understand economic tariffs are known, we also face a different changing world. The Paris Net Zero 2050 Agreement introduced legally binding greenhouse gas (GHGs) reductions on countries to maintain global temperature increases to well below plus 2 degrees Celsius on pre-industrial levels. Bold, ambitious and responsible are adjectives to describe such an agreement. However, the territorial, or production basis of these national Net Zero binding targets may yet lead us to the wrong solution. The CBAMs that are fast approaching are, in many cases, focused upon “easy wins” of inputs to agricultural production processes – taxes on fertiliser, steel, cement. These are indeed carbon intensive inputs. However, this partial view of agri-food production systems may lead us down the wrong path. CBAMs are logical in principle, but if they are to be truly effective in achieving their aims, the forthcoming input-CBAMs, while necessary are not sufficient. Achieving global Net Zero targets requires a more holistic approach to CBAM implementation that also covers agricultural and food commodities moving across international borders. Only in this way can the agri-food system be optimised to ensure that carbon-efficient comparative production advantage wins out.

Achieving Net Zero is essential, but GHGs are indeed global. As agricultural economists we have a crucial role to play in the analysis needed to understand this. The starting point is robust, independently verified, environmental-footprint data that complements production and economic data. The task is complex, but agricultural economists must be at the forefront to ensure that the world changes for the better, not the worst.  

Paul Wilson (paul.wilson@nottingham.ac.uk)

2025 Dialogue between the AES and the Agri-Food Industry

The Dialogue will focus on Strengthening Sustainable Farming and Food Futures in a Volatile World and will be held at the Farmers’ Club, London from 10h-15h on 18 June.  Further details and registration are posted on the AES website. The 2024 conference was a great success, and this will follow up by further exploring the contribution that agricultural economists can offer to the agri-food industry to respond to their concerns in a changing and volatile geo-political world.

Bordeaux welcomed the 2025 AES Annual Conference

The Bordeaux School of Economics was the venue for the Society’s third visit to France for its annual conference from 13-16 April 2025. A richly packed and varied programme catered to a wide range of interests and expertise (the full programme can be accessed on the AES website, with photographs) for the 210 participants. Professor Céline Bonnet (Toulouse School of Economics) in her Keynote Address delivered a thought-provoking analysis on Insights from industrial organization: addressing fair value sharing and consumer affordability challenges in agri-food chains, while Professor Paul Wilson (Nottingham) drew attention to the crucial value of good data and recognition of those providing data in his Presidential Address on Obsessions with farm performance: a Cinderella social science?  Following last year’s presentation by Spiro Stefanou (ERS/USDA) session on sustainability and productivity, Professor Bob Chambers (Maryland, USA) argued his critical (and controversial) Thoughts on measuring sustainability and productivity?

For the first time the winner of the JAE Prize Paper, Dr Luigi Biagini (University of Tuscia, Italy) was invited to present his article on The unintended consequences of farm insurance: a causal investigation of income, productivity and input dynamics. Symposia are always an important feature in AES conferences and this year they covered machine learning in agricultural economics, the shifting agendas in global agricultural policy, European agricultural policy, and the wine sector in crisis. Professor David Wûepper (Bonn) gave a Masterclass on regression discontinuity designs in agricultural and environmental economics. From the 18 posters submitted, the jury of AES Presidents chose Thomas Kopp’s (Giessen) poster on Reducing Negative Effects of Risk Aversion on Farming Outcomes: Evidence for Systematic External Selection into Profitable Contract as the winner, while the best PhD presentation was won by Anna Massfeller (Bonn) for Algorithm aversion in farmers’ intention to use decision support tools in crop management.  

During the annual conference dinner at the Café du Port restaurant overlooking the Garonne River the Society’s Awards for Excellence were granted to colleagues from SRUC in Scotland: Dr Bethan Thompson (Outstanding Young Researcher) and Professor Steven Thomson (Lifetime Achievement in Public Policy, Industry and the Society).  

Very many thanks to Hervé Dakpo (Programme Secretary), Steve Ramsden (Chair of the Executive), Katy Thorne (AES Administrator) and Cristal Chaineaud and the team at BSE for making the conference a great success – and thanks to the presenters and participants!

Wilfrid Legg (Honorary Secretary), wilfrid_legg@hotmail.com

Centenary of the AES in 2026 – Save the date!  

The AES is approaching its Centenary and preparations are well underway for the 2026 AES conference in Wadham College Oxford, from 23-25 March, near the site of the first conference in March 1926. David Stead (UC Dublin and Honorary Secretary elect) is completing a history of the Society in the context of the evolution of the agri-food economy and agricultural economics. The history will be launched as part of the Centenary and several other events are planned to include invitations to other agricultural economics associations. Next year will also mark the retirement of several of the Society’s long-standing Officers so please consult the AES website for information.

EuroChoices article chosen for EAAE Giovanni Anania Award
 
The European Association of Agricultural Economists has established an annual award for the best article published in EuroChoices. The award is The Societal Impact Award in Honour of Giovanni Anania. The Editorial Board of EuroChoices selects the best article published in the year and proposes it to the EAAE board for its approval. For 2024 the Award has gone to Jeremy Jelliffe, Keith Fuglie and Stephen Morgan for Productivity-led Pathways to Sustainable Agricultural Growth: Six Decades of Progress.

John Davis, Editor in Chief (eurochoices@aes.ac.uk)  

Members may like to consult recent OECD publications: Environmental Performance of Agriculture in OECD Countries: Key Trends and Insights and Climate change, agriculture and food systems

"The overall environmental performance of agriculture in OECD countries is a mix of progress and persistent challenges. Strengthening data-driven policy approaches will be essential to improve sustainable productivity growth, ensuring that future food systems are both resilient and sustainable."

Greenhouse gas emissions in OECD countries, which had remained stable for years, began rising in the 2010s by an average of 0.4% per year, resulting in a 4.3% increase between 2009 and 2021, while progress in reducing emission intensity slowed significantly.
 
https://doi.org/10.1787/2679ba38-en
 https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/climate-change-agriculture-and-food-systems.html

Following the AES Conference in Bordeaux, those interested in the wine sector should consult the annual report of the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV):

In Memorium: Emeritus Professor John McInerney 1939-2025

It is with deep regret that the Society has learned of the death on 5 March of Emeritus Professor John McInerney OBE (Exeter), former President of the Agricultural Economics Society (1996-1997) and recipient of the Society's Award for Excellence for outstanding contribution to the profession. A memorial event will be held in his former home village of Templeton, Devon on 10 May and an obituary will be published in due course in the Journal of Agricultural Economics.  

Food for thought for economists

The test of a useful forecast is not whether it turns out to be accurate, but whether it turns out to prompt some sort of useful action. Tim Harford in the Financial Times.

The Newsletter is also circulated with the Journal of Agricultural Economics. The deadline for items for the next issue is 8 July 2025, to wilfrid_legg@hotmail.com